Triple Threat In The Tropics By Early Next Week
The peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season happens September 12th. According to history that is the busiest time of the year when it comes to activity of tropical nature in the Atlantic Basin. Mother Nature is running slightly ahead of schedule on that peak.
As of Saturday August 20th the National Hurricane Center was monitoring Tropical Storm Fiona, a strong tropical wave well off the coast of Africa, and another strong low pressure system that is about to roll off the African Continent into the very warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
The forecast for Tropical Storm Fiona does not appear to show much of a threat to the United State or any large land mass. The potential threat from the two tropical waves could be a much different story.
The first tropical wave designated as Invest 99L has been given a 50% probability of strengthening into at least a tropical depression over the next five days. The tropical forecast models have shifted the potential track of this developing system to the south of Friday's model run. Should the models be accurate this could put a tropical system in the Eastern Caribbean by late this week.
The second system which is still technically not a tropical system because it is still on land, is also given a 50% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone of some kind over the next five days. There have been very few tropical model runs made on this area of weather at this time. Those will come early next week.