Tropical Development Imminent in the Gulf
Since long before Sally was given a name there was an area of disturbed weather that was being monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the Gulf of Mexico. This disorganized blend of showers and thundershowers has basically ridden the perimeter of the Gulf from just off the Florida Panhandle to just south of the Louisiana coastline to its current location in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
It now looks as if that weather system has found an area of the Gulf that is conducive for strengthening. In fact, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are giving it a 90% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days. Should that happen that could put another potentially dangerous storm in the Gulf of Mexico.
While forecasters are relatively certain that at least a Tropical Depression will form. There is a lot more uncertainty about where that storm system might go. The tropical forecast models are having a very difficult time picking up this system. Take a look at these "spaghetti plots". The track forecasts look more like a path a squirrel would take to get out of the way of a moving car. It's all over the place.
As of now, the basic consensus is that a system will form. That system will eventually make landfall on the Gulf Coast. That means landfall anywhere from Mexico all the away around to Florida. The system could be as strong as a hurricane or as weak as a tropical wave. In other words, we will just have to wait and see. Check back with us often for updates.
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