Presidential Polls: The Spaghetti Models Of An Election [VIDEO]
In Louisiana, we know what it's like to watch a tropical system make its way across the Atlantic Ocean. Our radars are on alert the first time those projected paths put them anywhere near the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico. Anyone who has been through that waiting game knows those paths change often and, sometimes, drastically.
As a certified news junkie, I've felt that way about the presidential election, specifically the poll numbers. I'm sure I'm not alone.
Louisiana is typically a "red state," and a poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research done in mid-October gave the Bayou State to Republican nominee Donald Trump.
We all know it takes all 50 states and 270 electoral votes to become president. Louisiana will contribute 8 to the column of the person who wins the popular vote here.
The ABC/ Washington Post poll indicates Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has a "clear advantage." The CNN Opinion poll and their poll of poll predicts a clear victory for Clinton. An NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll from last week showed Clinton besting Trump by 11 points.
But those number are all yesterday, or last week, or... not right now. So who's right?
A Google search of "most accurate presidential poll" will give you an impressive list, but one name is common on many sites on the first page: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll.
Try as I might to figure out the methodologies of the multitude of polls out there, I must admit I can't. I am, however, intrigued by the transparency of the IBD/TIPP methods. I'm also impressed by their track record.
When you hear or see poll numbers and they are different from one day to the next, that's typical. Pollsters conduct new surveys daily.
If you'd like to follow the results of the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll day by day, just CLICK HERE!
In case you were wondering (like I was), Gallup no longer does election polling. According to a Times article from last year, election polling isn't productive enough for the pollster group, and they are, instead, focusing on asking people how they feel on political issues, rather than candidates.