(KMDL-FM) Motorists attempting to make their way through traffic in Lafayette on Tuesday afternoon at about 2 pm received an impromptu lesson in driving in torrential rain. Let's say the bottom dropped out, and streets like Congress, Johnston, and Ambassador Caffery Parkways, all major thoroughfares in the city, took and held a lot of water for a short time.

Staff Photo
Staff Photo
Staff Photo

That was my view out the windshield of my vehicle as I made my way through the storm. Hopefully, you weren't out in the deluge, and more importantly, let's hope you won't be in the middle of another downpour later today because forecasters with the National Weather Service say a repeat of the torrential rain is likely today.

READ MORE: Drove Through High Water? Check This On Your Car Now

Rob Perillo, the Chief Meteorologist at KATC TV 3 in Lafayette, explained the reason for the excessive rains in his post on the TV station website. Rob says a frontal boundary is stalled right along Louisiana's coastline. That brings instability to the atmosphere, and with the abundant moisture available, that means daily downpours.

And for the amateur weather observer, many of you have noticed a "spin in the Gulf". That usually signifies we need to be paying attention. And in this case, yeah, it's worth looking at, but how long will we need to watch?

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Watching the Gulf for Tropical Development

Rob Perillo via KATC.com
Rob Perillo via KATC.com
Rob Perillo via KATC.com

Rob mentioned a weak low-pressure system in the Gulf in his story on the KATC site. The prognosis for development is nil, so that won't be a tropical influence, but it could influence Acadiana and South Louisiana rain chances for the remainder of the week.

And this serves as a great reminder that any weather system in the Gulf this time of year, all the way through the beginning of Fall, is worth watching. Sometimes a low-pressure system on a trailing cold front can spin up into a bigger problem; it's happened before, but we don't think it will happen this week or anytime soon.

What is Going On in the Tropical Atlantic Basin This Morning?

The National Hurricane Center is not concerned with the weather feature, so we won't be as well, at least for tropical characteristics, but the system could enhance the rain threat for the area or put us in a "dry slot" where the system draws in drier air and actually reduces the rain threat. Weather is a fascinating science.

READ MORE: What Is the Flooding Threat for Where You Live - See the Map

As of today, Wednesday, June 3, 2026, the Weather Prediction Center has much of Louisiana at a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Excessive rainfall is when it rains harder than the drainage system can handle, kind of like we saw in Lafayette for a brief time on Tuesday.

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

KATC has rain chances at 70% for today, the Weather Service in Lake Charles is posting an 80% threat of showers and storms, so I think the thinking is "It's going to rain". Rain chances dip slightly on Thursday, but are still at 60%; the same threat lingers through Friday, with an even bigger threat of rain in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. 

Based on model guidance, the greatest threat of a torrential downpour will come from the late morning hours through the afternoon. Rain chances will drop significantly during the overnight hours, but you should still experience a shower at any time over the next five days.

Hurricane Landfall Probabilities Revealed: Parish-by-Parish Breakdown

Forecasters at Colorado State University have released forecast probabilities that a named storm will make landfall along Louisiana's coastline during 2026. The named storm impact probability for Louisiana's coastline is listed at 52%. The hurricane impact probability is listed at 28%. The impact probability for a major hurricane in Louisiana is 10%. Now, let's break it down for where you live. See the probability for your parish.