Tropical Track Shifts Toward Gulf – Louisiana Could Feel Effects

If you were to stand on  Bourbon Street in the New Orleans French Quarter and look toward the southeast you'd be looking in the general direction of the island of Hispaniola. That's the Caribbean island that is home to Haiti and the Dominican Republic. And right now a lot of Louisiana eyes are looking in that direction for what could be our next "tropical episode".

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have been monitoring a tropical wave as it moved across the Atlantic Ocean. Late last week the system was well out to sea but has now moved over the eastern coastline of the Dominican Republic. Forecasters with the NHC are giving this system a 60% probability of becoming at least a tropical depression over the next seven days.

For the past few days, the forecast track of this potential tropical trouble spot has suggested the system would be more of a concern for Florida and the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. Here is the track forecast from the early morning hours of July 31st.

Over the past 12 to 24 hours track model forecasts have shifted more to the west. This brings the eastern Gulf of Mexico into play. You can see the shift to the west in the graphic projection released by the National Hurricane Center early this morning, August 1, 2024.

Because of this significant change in thinking, interests in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should pay close attention to the progress of this system over the next seven days. The need for further attention could also shift westward into Louisiana. Here is why we are suggesting that.

One tropical model is particularly troublesome as it suggests the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico, strengthen, and then approach the Florida Panhandle. But instead of making landfall the system stalls out and slides westward toward Louisiana before eventually moving onshore.

DISCLAIMER: A model projection does not constitute an official forecast. Model projections, especially over several days, are far from accurate. This forecast will change several times over the next week. Use this information accordingly and check back with us often for the latest changes and updates.

Development of this system, should there be any, will be slow and forecasters with the National Hurricane Center believe if the system develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm it won't be until later this weekend or early next week.

As of right now, the system poses no significant threat to Louisiana's coastline but that is certainly subject to change. We should have a better idea of what kind of system we are dealing with by Sunday, as of now tropical impacts along the northern Gulf Coast won't be likely, if at all, until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday.  And there is still a great deal of uncertainty over which portions of the Gulf Coast, if any, might be affected by this storm.

By the way, should the system earn a name as a tropical storm it would be called Debby. That would be the fourth named storm of Hurricane Season 2024. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic Basin, no other tropical activity is noted.