Timing Has Changed On Louisiana’s Severe Weather Threat
The science of forecasting weather is far from an exact science. Although today's modern meteorologists such as Rob Perillo, Daniel Phillips, Dave Baker, and Bradley Benoit are very good and usually spot on with their prognostications the weather is something that simply can't be controlled.
In other words, Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature wants to do and in the case of an impending severe weather threat affecting all of Louisiana over the next 24 to 48 hours, there have been some changes. It looks as if the worst of the expected weather will arrive in the state sooner than later and more of the state could be subjected to stronger storms than originally thought earlier in the week.
The graphic you see above is the Storm Prediction Centers' visual display of the severe weather threat for the nation today, April 20th. The area of risk outlined in yellow is considered to be a "slight" risk of severe weather. Compared to yesterday's same outlook the ariel coverage of the storm swath has increased to cover almost all of western Louisiana.
Yesterday's forecast suggests only the northwestern corner of the state would see strong storms today and the rest of the state would see the worst of the weather on Friday. Forecast models have apparently picked up on a change in speed in the approaching storm system. If those models are correct those of us who live along I-10 will actually experience strong storms around sunrise Friday or shortly thereafter.
Here's how the Extended HRRR weather model depicts the timing of this severe weather event.
Chief Meteorologist Rob Perillo posted the model run as part of his weather blog on the KATC website. It's a great read and it offers a lot of insight as to why we will likely start the day Friday with storms and then build into a beautiful weekend.
But before the rainbows we've got to have the rain and Rob's blog suggests that a large portion of South Louisiana will receive more rain than previously expected. Rainfall totals in the Lafayette area, based on the HRRR Model, will be almost two inches. Yesterday's model run suggested the Lafayette area would see less than an inch of rain.
Will the threat of heavy downpours and severe weather in the area affect schools and other functions planned for Friday? We don't know that as of this writing but don't be surprised if some school systems err on the side of caution so as to not put students, parents, and faculty unnecessarily in harm's way.
If you don't have our station App I suggest you download it now and make sure you turn on Breaking News and Weather Alerts. That way should severe storms be sighted or schools adjust their schedules you'll be the first to know.
The showers and storms should clear the area by midday on Friday and the rest of the weekend looks to be quite nice. In fact, "Chamber of Commerce" nice with sunny skies and cool temperatures. This could be our last "not so hot" weekend for a while as we move into the final week of April and start looking down the barrel of summer and hurricane season.
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