NOAA Revises 2024 Hurricane Forecast – Any Changes for Louisiana?

In mid-May of this year, just about twelve weeks ago, almost everyone who makes a home or operates a business within 100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico got a pretty sobering wake-up call. That call came in the form of the 2024 Hurricane Season forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA, the folks that watch our weather through agencies such as the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, issued its seasonal forecast for the 2024 Hurricane Season back then and the news was not good for Louisiana. Nor was it good for anyone who lived near where the "map turns blue".

The prognosis according to NOAA was 17 to 25 named storms. Of those storms that earned a name eight to thirteen of them would reach hurricane status. Of those storms that reached hurricane status forecasters at NOAA surmised that four to seven of those storms would rise to the rank of major hurricane.

So far in Hurricane Season 2024, we have had four named storms. Alberto became a tropical storm in late June but did not strengthen further. Alberto made landfall in Mexico as the season's first named storm.

Hurricane Beryl was next to form and it became the season's first hurricane and first major hurricane. That storm made landfall along the upper Texas coast and caused all kinds of problems for residents of Houston. I'm not sure if everyone in Beryl's path even has their lights back on and that was back in early July.

Tropical Storm Chris was next to form, it was really much ado about nothing. It did make landfall in Mexico and was minimal compared to the strength of Beryl at landfall.

Hurricane Debby is the most recent storm. It made landfall just last week in Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm system then lingered around the southeastern United States for much of the week bringing flooding rains to the Carolina, Georgia, and other states along the Eastern Seaboard.

The graphic you see above is the current tropical forecast for the Atlantic Basin. That is Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 5. It does appear as though that system will become Earnesto at some time in the next few days. The current track forecast suggests that Earnesto won't be an issue for the Gulf of Mexico and will likely not affect the United States with direct landfall.

What Does NOAA Latest Hurricane Forecast Mean For Louisiana?

The updated forecast for mid-season from NOAA holds very true to the preseason speculation. As you can see in the graphic below, forecasters still believe that the bulk of the 2024 season's storms are yet to come.  The named storms have been reduced by one but the number of hurricanes remains the same. The same forecast of four to seven major hurricanes holds as well.

If NOAA's outlook for the Hurricane Season holds true then we will get to Rafael on our list of tropical names for the season. The season runs through November 30th and even though we are back in school in Louisiana and looking forward to football and fall weather we are just now entering what is known as Louisiana "primetime" for tropical weather.

The ramp-up into the heart of the season is just beginning and we will have to keep a constant vigil to the south through at least mid-October. Let's hope in this case, the forecasters are wrong and the current tropical season won't be nearly as chaotic as forecast. Of course, all we can do is be prepared and then wait and see.