Hurricane Francine 4 AM Update – Landfall in Louisiana Soon

There is an eerie quiet along many streets in Louisiana coastal communities this morning. Despite the calming sounds of rain falling in places like Golden Meadow, Venice, Houma, and LaPlace there is a sense of dread. A feeling that somewhere out there in the darkness lurks a monster. In this case, our monster isn't imaginary. It's a hurricane named Francine. 

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have been tracking Francine for almost two weeks. The storm began as a tropical wave in the far Atlantic. It faded in and out over the Caribbean and eventually crossed the Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. It spent a few days under the moniker Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. 

On Monday the system earned tropical storm status and just yesterday the circulating mass of showers, storms, and wind was upgraded to hurricane status and that brings us to this the 0400 AM Update from the National Hurricane Center.

The storm's center of circulation was plotted at 27.0N / 93.8W. To put that in miles, Francine is about 240 miles south-southwest of Lafayette, Louisiana, or 245 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.

Has Francine's Track Been Adjusted in the Overnight Hours?

Unfortunately for Morgan City and St. Mary Parish, the storm appears to be heading in your direction. The movement of Francine was to the northeast at 10 mph. The maximum sustained winds of the storm were clocked at 90 mph. Here is the 0400 AM track guidance from the National Hurricane Center.

Please remember that Francine is much larger than what "the cone" suggests. So, areas outside of the cone of uncertainty are certainly at risk for tropical storm or even hurricane conditions as the system makes its way onshore later today.

The 0400 AM Update to Francine's track includes another shift a little further to the east. That is consistent with what the reliable tropical models have been forecasting over the past few days. Almost all of the models agree a landfall in either St. Mary Parish or Terrebonne Parish is the most likely scenario.

When Will Francine Make Landfall?

Actual landfall will be determined by how far east the system moves. The current guidance suggests the center of circulation should cross Louisiana's coastline sometime this afternoon. Right now forecasters are suggesting a 3 pm to 7 pm window for that to occur.

The storm is expected to weaken rapidly once it makes landfall. But it will still be a prodigious rainmaker as it moves through Louisiana this afternoon and evening and exits the state before midnight.

What Are The Wind Speeds in Francine?

High water and not high winds will be the most concerning factor for most residents of Louisiana. The wind field of the storm, at least the hurricane-force wind field is relatively small. The tropical storm force winds extend outward some 115 miles from the storm's center. Hurricane-force winds extend only 35 miles out from the storm's center of circulation.

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles provided this graphic for residents of southwestern Louisiana regarding potential wind damage.

The NWS Forecast Office in Lake Charles also provided this very handy graphic depicting the potential for heavy rain and flooding across the region. This graphic was created several hours ago and will likely need to be adjusted to take the changes in Francine's path into account.

But, there is still going to be plenty of rain and high water to cause issues for Louisiana residents well away from the storm's destructive winds.

What's Next After Francine?

The good news for residents of the Gulf South is that there are no imminent threats from the tropics to be concerned with for at least the next week. The weekend forecast should call for sunny skies but warm conditions. That should aid those who need to do some cleaning or repairs because of the storm.

Two tropical waves are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. Both systems are well out in the Atlantic. One is more robust than the other. It has been given an 80% probability of strengthening into a tropical cyclone. The other system has only been given a 30% chance of growing into a tropical cyclone.

Neither system poses a threat to land at this time. Only time will tell if these storm systems will pose a threat to the coastline of the United States. Those on the Eastern Seaboard will likely feel changes in wave action and ocean currents if and when these waves move closer to land.

The next intermediate update on Francine will come from the National Hurricane Center at 0700 AM. The next full forecast with an adjusted cone will come at 1000 AM.