Hurricane Experts Update Forecast – It’s Not Good for Louisiana

Residents of coastal Louisiana have just dodged a major bullet in the form of Hurricane Beryl. The storm's track brought it onshore early Monday morning along the middle Texas coast and for the most part Louisiana was spared the bulk of torrential rains, high winds, and storm surge. Our neighbors in Texas were not so lucky but in true Texas fashion, they're pulling themselves back up and getting on with the recovery.

Hurricane Beryl was the first major hurricane of the 2024 Hurricane Season. What's remarkable about that is that Beryl achieved major hurricane status earlier in the season and faster than any other storm in history. This observation as well as new data from the tropics has prompted a well-known hurricane forecaster to up the ante on the 2024 season.

Colorado State's Updated Hurricane Forecast is Bad News for the Gulf South

The tropical weather forecasters at Colorado State University have earned a solid reputation for predicting tropical weather each year. The school's meteorology department had already issued a preseason forecast for 2024 that was very robust.

The fact that we are barely a month and a week into the season and there have already been three named storms shows that the outlook for a busy season appears to be on target. Unfortunately, CSU forecasters now say they may have underestimated the 2024 season and have issued a revised forecast. 

New Hurricane Forecast Calls for Additional Storms This Season

The adjusted CSU forecast now calls for one more hurricane and one more major hurricane. That would bring the total number of named storms in 2024 to 25. CSU forecasters now say 12 of those 25 storms will be hurricanes and six of those twelve hurricanes will reach major hurricane status.

The Colorado State Team based their updated forecast on extremely high sea surface temperatures and the fact that ocean temperatures in the Pacific are now in a La Nina phase. That change in Pacific water temperatures affects wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the tropical Atlantic. That upper-level shear is often a deterrent to tropical storm formation.

The remnants of Beryl are now bringing heavy rains and severe storms to the Midwest. Meanwhile, in the tropics, there is good news to report. The National Hurricane Center does not expect tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic Basin for at least the next seven days.