Mariners Snag LSU’s Kade Anderson In Unexpected Turn

What wasn't the best case scenario for LSU Pitcher Kade Anderson, may be the best case scenario for the team that took him in the first round of the MLB Draft. In the long run, it might be the best thing for everyone involved.

Kade Anderson Was Projected To Be The #1 Pick In The MLB Draft

The first round of the MLB Draft was held this weekend in Atlanta on the site of the MLB All Star Game festivities. For much of the buildup to the draft, experts believed high school hitter Ethan Holliday was going to be the #1 overall pick. Holliday is the son of World Series Champion and 7-time All Star Matt Holliday, and the younger brother of former #1 overall MLB Draft pick Jackson Holliday. He was locked in for the top pick for months.

But then Kade Anderson started popping off for LSU during the college baseball season. He was so good, there were points in the year where it felt like Anderson was dragging the Tigers to wins, and pushing them into the NCAA Tournament. Anderson went 12-1 this year, tearing through college baseball's toughest conference, the SEC. He threw 119 innings in 19 starts, with 180 strikeouts and a 3.33 ERA (against metal bats).

Anderson's performance at LSU was so good, the same experts and oddsmakers that projected Holliday as the #1 overall pick switched their picks to Anderson for the top spot. That top pick belonged to the Washington Nationals, who could use some pitching in their farm system. Anderson made a lot of sense for the Nationals, who were also afraid of how much of a signing bonus Holliday may have demanded at the top pick.

The Odds Favored Kade Anderson Going #1 Overall In The MLB Draft

A week before the MLB Draft, the oddsmakers at DraftKings put together odds that showed Anderson as the betting favorite to be the top pick, with Holliday at second best odds:

Kade Anderson: -150 (bet $10 to win $16.67 total)
Ethan Holliday: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Any Other Player: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Seth Hernandez: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Liam Doyle: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Aiva Arquette: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Jamie Arnold: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Billy Carlson: +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)
Kyson Witherspoon: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Jace LaViolette: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)

The Washington Nationals Shocked The World With Random #1 Overall Draft Pick

But then the first round of the MLB Draft actually arrived, and the Washington Nationals acted like a team who had just fired all of their baseball leadership a week before the draft. They used their #1 overall pick on someone that wasn't even listed on DraftKings odds.

The Nationals skipped Anderson, and Holliday, and took 17-year-old high schooler Eli Willits. Shocking literally everyone.

The Los Angeles Angels Took An Unknown Pitcher With The Second Pick In The Draft

But the surprises weren't done. Because the Los Angeles Angels were preparing to take a player at the #2 overall pick. The team had bee rumored to covet Anderson, but didn't think he was going to fall to them at the second pick. According to most experts, they weren't going to take Holliday, and were probably going to select Tennessee pitcher Liam Doyle if Anderson went #1 overall.

Then Anderson didn't go #1, and he was available for the Angels. Who skipped him to reach for a player that was ranked by MLB.com as the 18th ranked player in the draft, UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner. Another name that wasn't listed by the oddsmakers for the top pick.

The Seattle Mariners Got Lucky Twice In The 2025 MLB Draft

So suddenly, the Seattle Mariners were sitting at the third overall pick, planning to maybe have one of the top two prospects fall to them in their best case scenario, just got an even better case scenario. Both of the top two players in the draft had fallen into their lap at #3 overall.

This is the same type of luck the Mariners had when they won the #3 pick during the MLB Draft lottery. When the draft order was being built, the Mariners had the 15th best odds to get the #1 overall pick. The Colorado Rockies and Florida Miami Marlins were tied with the best odds to get the top pick. The Mariners shot all the way from their projected 15th overall pick to the third overall pick.

Now, after beating the odds to get into this spot, they beat the odds on having the top two prospects fall to them in the actual draft.

The Seattle Mariners Need Pitching Depth In The MLB Draft

The Mariners have a strong farm system, with their minor league teams being home to 9 players that have been ranked by MLB in their Pipeline Top 100. Of those 9 players, only 2 of them are pitchers. Which means the Mariners could use some pitching depth added. Making Anderson being their best option.

But a lot of Mariners reporters had already resigned themselves to the fact Anderson would go #1 or #2 overall. So they were thinking about Liam Doyle of Tennessee, or Seth Hernandez of Corona High School, or some other pitching prospect.

Kade Anderson Fell To The Seattle Mariners In The MLB Draft

When Anderson didn't go #1 overall, Seattle probably sat up a bit. Then when the Angels took a random name at #2, they had to have stood up. When they realized Kade Anderson was available for them to select, they had to have sprinted to turn in that pick. They made Kade Anderson the #3 overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. It was probably the fastest a pick has ever been turned in during an MLB Draft...ever.

Anderson is the highest LSU pitcher drafted since Paul Skenes in the 2023 draft. Skenes went #1 overall to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Now, with the Mariners organization, Anderson has a chance to follow Skenes path to the MLB. After Skenes was taken, he only made 12 starts in the minors, throwing 34 innings before the Pirates knew he was ready for the big leagues. Anderson could do something similar.

Kade Anderson's Path To The MLB

The odds of Anderson making it to the big leagues by the end of this season are pretty limited. The year Skenes was drafted, he made 5 starts across three different levels of minor league baseball. When 2024 started, he made 7 starts at AAA, then got called up. He went on to be named an All Star, start the All Star game for the National League, finished 3rd in Cy Young voting, and won NL Rookie of the Year.

Anderson has the type of stuff that could put him on a crash course with Seattle's starting lineup. If his 4-pitch mix, and two plus pitches (fastball and changeup), can dice up minor league hitters, the Mariners might not be able to keep him off the 40-man-roster.

Why Did The Seattle Mariners Want Kade Anderson In The MLB Draft?

The Mariners have a great pitching staff, with Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby in the starting rotation. Gilbert and Kirby are getting close to outright free agency, which means one, or both, could be on their way out of Seattle. Getting the team lined up for Anderson to fall into the rotation to replace at least one of them, has to be a top priority for the franchise.

It's not much of an argument that the Mariners are a better organization than the Nationals or Angels, so that's already a plus for Anderson. Not to mention there's a pretty clear path for him to get to the bigs, which is another plus. We should also consider both Gilbert and Kirby were Mariners draft picks that they built in their system...meaning they could help Anderson get better as well.

Sure, Anderson would have loved to be the #1 overall pick, but falling to the Mariners at #3 might end up being the best case scenario all around.

North Louisiana Fans Might Be Winners Too

This is also a great scenario for fans in Louisiana, especially those in North Louisiana...like Shreveport and Monroe. The Mariners' AA minor league team is the Arkansas Travelers organization. Which means that if Anderson gets assigned to pitch at AA, it will be a short drive to the Little Rock area for LSU fans to see him pitch.