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Tropics – Good News For The Gulf At Least For Now

nhc.noaa.gov
nhc.noaa.gov

You could almost feel the energy of a collective groan when the news was released yesterday that tropical forecasters had identified an area of tropical concern in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It now looks as if that system won’t materialize at least over the next several days. Can we get a great big AMEN on that one?

That doesn’t mean the tropics aren’t very active. We are basically at the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and so far the predictions of a very active season have been spot on.

Major Hurricane Irma is gathering a lot of attention this morning and will continue to capture that attention over the next several days. The Category 3 Storm is expected to get even stronger as it approaches the outer islands of the Caribbean by the middle of next week.

Irma’s official forecast track from the Hurricane Center does bring the dangerous system westward across the Atlantic and right at the doorstep of the Windward Islands by Wednesday. Where does Irma go from there? Based on this model I’d be paying a lot of attention to forecasters if I lived anywhere from North Carolina to New England.

Forecasters will also be watching another tropical wave several degrees south and west of Irma’s current location. The Hurricane Center is giving this system a 50% probability of growing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

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