Tropical Storm Danny Could Be A Threat To The Caribbean
Tropical Storm Danny looked a little more ragged than it had been looking during the day yesterday. An intrusion of dry air and dust from the Sahara was to blame. The ragged convection features were based on the visible satellite views. The microwave views of the circulation of the storm showed that Danny was in fact fairly healthy and continuing to show signs of strengthening.
The latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center is suggesting that the system does have the opportunity to get stronger over the next two or three days. A convectivley coupled Kelvin wave, or weakness in the upper air El Nino flow has given Danny a window in what would normally be a very hostile environment. That strengthening window is expected to be short lived as Danny will begin to encounter a greater wind shear once the center of circulation gets closer to the Windward Islands early next week.
The forecast models have backed off considerably on Danny's intensity. The forecast track has also shifted a little south of what was being suggested by yesterday's model run. If you really want to get your nerves on edge you can take a look at the Ensemble Models. Those show the system getting very close to the Florida Straits and into the Gulf of Mexico by late next week.
Just a reminder long range hurricane forecasting is far from an exact science. It probably would be a good idea to consider your hurricane plan and then hope that Danny will fizzle out when he hits that El Nino wind shear that is fairly prevalent over the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. That would be the best scenario but regardless we will watch and wait and see exactly what the forecasters as saying as the next few days unfold.