The problem with the beautiful warm waters of the Caribbean Sea this time of year is they have the power to turn an area of thunderstorms into an area of concern. That's what's happening right now just to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico or a hundred miles or so south of Cancun.

The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring an area of disturbed weather that is just sitting off the coastline. During the winter months this kind of thunderstorm activity would be nothing more than a wet weekend. During the warm weather months of June, July, August, and September an innocent area of thunderstorms feeding off the heat of the Caribbean could blow up into a tropical system overnight. Forecasters don't think that will happen by the way.

The forecast for this area of thunderstorms to intensify has changed recently and the Hurricane Center has now given this system a 50% chance over the next 5 days of strengthening into a tropical cyclone. Some of the tropical models indicate the system might hold together and move into the Gulf of Mexico by next week.  Most of these models predict the system would interact with the Texas coast by either Tuesday or Wednesday. Regardless if this holds true then South Louisiana can expect the potential for even more heavy rain.

Still we need you to know that we know and a lot of people who are a lot more skilled at forecast storms know too. It's our job to keep you abreast of any changes in the weather as it relates to Hurricane Season.